Tropical Cyclone Forecasters Reference Guide; 5. Numerical track forecast guidance

Abstract

One of the keys to safe and successful naval operations in the tropics is a thorough understanding of tropical meteorology. The Tropical Cyclone Forecasters Reference Guide is designed primarily as a ready reference for midlatitude forecasters required to provide tropical meteorology support to staff commanders. This report provides a comprehensive overview of numerical forecast guidance used to assess tropical cyclone motion and is Chapter 5 of the reference guide. Subjects discussed include global and regional numerical modeling, major warning center operations, tropical cyclone numerical forecast aids, numerical modeling terminology, and applications of numerical forecast guidance to tropical cyclone forecasting.