A process for applying forecast uncertainty in planning for underway evolutions along intended track
Stoughton, Shane R.
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The sensitivity of operational decision making to atmospheric forecasts is a key component of the Decision Tier, or Tier 3, of Battlespace on Demand, Naval Oceanography's operational concept. To that end, effects of different wind forecast inputs were analyzed within a modeled decision context for an aircraft carrier ammunition offload. Development of the decision context using expected distance as the utility measurement was followed by an examination of the climatology of wind events that could adversely affect an offload evolution. Two high-wind event cases from 2009 were chosen for analysis within the decision model. Ensembles from numerical weather prediction models were formed into probabilistic wind forecasts and applied to several decision scenarios. Slight changes to both the forecast inputs and the decision context itself produced different decision outcomes, which emphasized the interdependency between forecasts and optimum decisions in the modeled scenario.
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