Using simulation analysis to evaluate enlistment programs for non prior service Army Reserve enlistments
Bailey, Anne C.
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The United States Army Reserve (USAR) currently has two enlistment program options--the Delayed Training Program (DTP) and the Delayed Entry Program (DEP). Enlistments under the DTP are counted as immediate gains and increase the count of the USAR end strength, while enlistments into the DEP do not increase the end strength, until the Soldier ships to Basic Combat Training (BCT). Historically, these two programs have not been offered concurrently. Due to recent fluctuations in the USAR end strength, a need has been identified for these programs to operate simultaneously. This thesis develops a simulation model that allows the study of the mix of applicants allowed to enlist under the DTP or DEP. The simulation illustrates that under current operating conditions applicants who are in high school or on an alternate training path, as well as 17%--25% of the remaining population of applicants should enlist under the DEP. This policy stabilizes the USAR end strength. The simulation model developed in this thesis can be used to test alternate policies for guiding enlistments as fluctuations in factors such as enlistment rate and attrition rate occur.
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