Organizing police expeditionary capacities : insights into a wicked problem territory with mathematical modeling
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Population-centric operations force modern western democratic states to deploy both police and military capacities. Globalization and under-governed states have transformed traditional security threats; now external security threats are generated by internal factors, and internal security threats are generated by external factors. Military organizations designed to address external security threats are ill suited to deal with internal security threats. Operations in Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq show the need for police expeditionary capacities to fill in for indigenous institutions following regime overthrow. Modern state organizations do not produce the quality and quantity of deployable police needed in the time required. States have several options for addressing their police expeditionary capacities. This thesis assesses the basic options with mathematical modeling of the dynamics between military and police organizations. The thesis describes a hybrid option with best organizational practices, represented by gendarmerie-type organizations. Comparing their characteristics with the outcomes of the modeled game demonstrates that the hybrid option best captures the characteristics of the Nash point as the hypothetically optimal objective of the arbitration process; it thus represents a suitable and sustainable organizational solution. The outcomes of the modeled game also suggest an arbitration process to consider the hybrid option.
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