A dynamic model for political stakeholders : forecasting the actions and relationships of Lebanese Hizbullah with Markov decision processes

Download
Author
Burciaga, Aaron D.
Date
2010-06Advisor
Kress, Moshe
Szechtman, Roberto
Second Reader
Atkinson, Michael
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
This thesis develops a decision theoretic model rooted in Markov decision process theory to provide military and diplomacy decision makers with insights regarding the interests and potential strategies of Lebanese Hizbullah. State trees are used to capture the interests and actions of Lebanese Hizbullah and other relevant countries, political organizations or group. These state trees are used to design an influence diagram that maps the interdependencies of all interests, actions and players. A Visual Basic for Applications tool was developed for the user to generate the sets of data necessary to populate and solve the model's influence diagram. The actions and interests of Lebanese Hizbullah, over time, in the influence diagram constitute a dynamic Bayesian network. At each stage of this dynamic process, Lebanese Hizbullah is characterized by a state and a set of feasible actions that, depending on the actions taken, determine the transition into a new state of the system. This dynamic dependency-bearing model identifies the most important interests, priorities, and capabilities of Lebanese Hizbullah. The resulting assessment of Lebanese Hizbullah's influence, investment, capabilities, and actions reveal key cause-and-effect relations. The utility of such insights may enable decision makers to determine material variables and best courses of action to enhance their strategic decision-making capabilities.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
SALAFIS IN LEBANON: EXAMINING THE ROLE OF EXTERNAL FINANCING ON THEIR ALLIANCES AND ACTIONS
El Chamieh, Jamal (Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2020-12);What role do state and non-state sponsors play in the decision-making process of Lebanese Salafi groups? This thesis examines the ideologies of various Lebanese Islamist groups in relation to those of their declared and ... -
Modeling stakeholder decision logic : a case study of Lebanese Hezbollah
Garrick, Ronald A. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2010-06);This research develops a methodology to analyze stakeholder-decision logic in dynamic, multi-agent political systems. The backdrop for this study is Lebanese Hezbollah decision making in a system including Iran, Syria, ... -
Modeling and Simulation Tool to Enhance and Explore the ROE Design Space for NLW
Hall, Steven B. (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate SchoolMonterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2019-12); NPS-19-M238-AThe goal of this research is to define an analytical tool, Workbench for refining Rules of Engagement against Crowd Hostiles (WRENCH), that will support operational planners and ground commanders in defining contextually ...