Publication:
An analysis of the relationship of flight hours and naval rotary wing aviation mishaps

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Authors
Le, Damien
Subjects
naval aviation
helicopter
pilot
causation
mishaps
flight hours
fatigue
likelihood of mishap
sequestration
Budget Control Act
night flight
overwater flight
naval rotary wing
aviation safety
NAVAIR
NAVSAFECEN
H-60 Seahawk
Advisors
Arkes, Jeremy
Hatch, Bill
Date of Issue
2017-03
Date
Mar-17
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
This thesis research developed comparative analysis models to explore whether too many or too few flight hours affected the likelihood of a mishap. The objective was to determine whether the period of sequestration and the number of total flight hours affected the number of aircraft mishaps. Flying too much leads to higher levels of fatigue, but not flying enough could result in reduced levels of proficiency. Flights during a period of sequestration are subjected to reduced flight hour funding. Data for the research covers the period of peak military funding (fiscal year 2000–February 2013) to periods of sequestration (March 2013–September 2016). Additionally, controls for night flight and overwater were used in the model to allow for better estimates of the effects of flight hours on the likelihood of a mishap. The research uses individual and squadron-level, aggregate standardized daily, weekly, and monthly flight-hour data and employs a fixed-effects logit model. The research addressed errors and controls that could affect the outcome estimates. The model's individual estimates found enough evidence to support indicators used for sequestration, high flight hours, night flight, and overwater flight had statistically significant effects on the likelihood of a mishap at either the individual or squadron level. More research is suggested with modeling other aircraft platforms to better observe trends over time. The results provide policymakers with a better understanding of the relationship between the number of flight hours and its effect on mishaps. Policymakers can use that understanding to make more informed decisions about budgetary funding of naval aviation.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Business & Public Policy (GSBPP)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Collections