Getting beyond analysis by anecdote: improving intelligence analysis through the use of case studies

Abstract

Since the 9/11 attacks critics of the American intelligence community have often complained about the lack of scientific rigor in intelligence analysis, and much of the work of the intelligence community has been described as mere ‘analysis by anecdote.’ In response, the intelligence community has made a considerable e ort to increase the rigor of its analysis. But surprisingly little has been done to examine how intelligence professionals might bene t from adopting one of the most common methods used in the social sciences: case study analysis. This article argues that a greater understanding of how case studies are used by political scientists and other scholars can help improve the quality of intelligence analysis and help the intelligence community assist policymakers as they attempt to understand the threats and challenges of today’s world.