Naval Postgraduate School
Dudley Knox Library
NPS Dudley Knox Library
View Item 
  •   Calhoun Home
  • Theses and Dissertations
  • 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items
  • View Item
  •   Calhoun Home
  • Theses and Dissertations
  • 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items
  • View Item
  • How to search in Calhoun
  • My Accounts
  • Ask a Librarian
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

Browse

All of CalhounCollectionsThis Collection

My Account

LoginRegister

Statistics

Most Popular ItemsStatistics by CountryMost Popular Authors

Long-range forecasting of Arctic sea ice

Thumbnail
Download
Icon10Jun_sTONE.pdf (2.469Mb)
Download Record
Download to EndNote/RefMan (RIS)
Download to BibTex
Author
Stone, Megan M.
Date
2010-06
Advisor
Murphree, Tom
Meyer, David
Metadata
Show full item record
Abstract
The operational production of skillful long-range forecasts of Arctic sea ice has the potential to be very useful when integrated into the planning of Arctic operations by the U.S. Navy and other organizations. We investigated the potential for predicting October sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Beaufort Sea at lead times of one to five months. We used SIC data for 1979-2007 to statistically and dynamically analyze atmospheric and oceanic processes associated with variations of SIC in the Beaufort Sea. We also conducted correlation analyses to identify climate system variables for use as predictors of SIC. We developed linear regression models for predicting SIC based on multiple predictors. We tested these models by generating hindcasts of October SIC for 1979-2007 based on several combinations of predictors. We found two key predictors of October SIC in the Beaufort Sea at leads of one to five months--antecedent SIC in the Beaufort Sea and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Caribbean Sea in the preceding May-September period. Both of these predictors showed a consistent and statistically significant relationship with October SIC at all lead times. Both are also dynamically reasonable predictors, given the role of antecedent ice conditions, and of the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in influencing basin scale SSTs. Our hindcast verification metrics show that a linear regression model based on these two predictors produces skillful forecasts of SIC at leads of one to five months. Based on these results, we issued a forecast on 01 June 2010 for SIC in the Beaufort Sea in October 2010. We also identified and conducted mult-year, linear regression hindcasts using several other predictors (e.g., low level air temperature, low level winds, and upper ocean temperature) that proved useful at various lead times. Our results indicate a significant potential for improving long range forecasts in support of Arctic operations by the U.S. Navy and other organizations.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10945/5341
Collections
  • 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items

Related items

Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.

  • Thumbnail

    Long-range forecasting in support of operations in the Horn of Africa 

    Lemke, Benjamin D. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2010-09);
    Over the past several decades, the Horn of Africa (HOA) has experienced recurring climate variations, including droughts and floods that have devastated the region's livelihoods and prompted increased investment in ...
  • Thumbnail

    An annual cycle of Arctic surface cloud forcing at SHEBA 

    Intrieri, J.M.; Fairall, C.W.; Shupe, M.D.; Persson, P.O.G.; Andreas, E.L.; Guest, P.S.; Moritz, R.E. (American Geophysical Union, 2002-09-17);
    We present an analysis of surface fluxes and cloud forcing from data obtained during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment, conducted in the Beaufort and Chuchki Seas and the Arctic Ocean from ...
  • Thumbnail

    Long-range atmosphere-ocean forecasting in support of undersea warfare operations in the western north Pacific 

    Heidt, Sarah L. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2009-09);
    Skillful long-range forecasts of acoustic variables have the potential to be very useful in planning Navy undersea warfare operations. Our study assessed the potential to predict sonic layer depth (SLD) in the western ...
NPS Dudley Knox LibraryDUDLEY KNOX LIBRARY
Feedback

411 Dyer Rd. Bldg. 339
Monterey, CA 93943
circdesk@nps.edu
(831) 656-2947
DSN 756-2947

    Federal Depository Library      


Start Your Research

Research Guides
Academic Writing
Ask a Librarian
Copyright at NPS
Graduate Writing Center
How to Cite
Library Liaisons
Research Tools
Thesis Processing Office

Find & Download

Databases List
Articles, Books & More
NPS Theses
NPS Faculty Publications: Calhoun
Journal Titles
Course Reserves

Use the Library

My Accounts
Request Article or Book
Borrow, Renew, Return
Tech Help
Remote Access
Workshops & Tours

For Faculty & Researchers
For International Students
For Alumni

Print, Copy, Scan, Fax
Rooms & Study Spaces
Floor Map
Computers & Software
Adapters, Lockers & More

Collections

NPS Archive: Calhoun
Restricted Resources
Special Collections & Archives
Federal Depository
Homeland Security Digital Library

About

Hours
Library Staff
About Us
Special Exhibits
Policies
Our Affiliates
Visit Us

NPS-Licensed Resources—Terms & Conditions
Copyright Notice

Naval Postgraduate School

Naval Postgraduate School
1 University Circle, Monterey, CA 93943
Driving Directions | Campus Map

This is an official U.S. Navy Website |  Please read our Privacy Policy Notice  |  FOIA |  Section 508 |  No FEAR Act |  Whistleblower Protection |  Copyright and Accessibility |  Contact Webmaster

Export search results

The export option will allow you to export the current search results of the entered query to a file. Different formats are available for download. To export the items, click on the button corresponding with the preferred download format.

A logged-in user can export up to 15000 items. If you're not logged in, you can export no more than 500 items.

To select a subset of the search results, click "Selective Export" button and make a selection of the items you want to export. The amount of items that can be exported at once is similarly restricted as the full export.

After making a selection, click one of the export format buttons. The amount of items that will be exported is indicated in the bubble next to export format.