Using kill-chain analysis to develop surface ship CONOPS to defend against anti-ship cruise missiles
Smith, Roy M.
Green, J. M.
Hart, D. A.
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The premise of this thesis is that a kill chain analysis can be used to ascertain survivability probabilities that can be used to analyze ship vulnerabilities to the anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) problem. Using the kill chain framework, two approaches are examined. The kill chain, as perceived by the eyes and sensors of the ASCM, are used for the analysis. From this perspective, the ASCM encounters the formidable layered defense of a target ship to include hard kill and soft kill measures. The first analysis uses a time line framework to calculate potential engagements and from this, compute the likely probability of success. The second approach uses decision tree software to analyze a single ASCM vs. target ship surface to air missile encounter using a Monte Carlo simulation with derived probabilities of success and failure. This paper looks at eighteen ASCMs available in the world today and examines their probability of success against a generic ship that has a defensive suite similar to the current Arleigh Burke class destroyers. A key finding was that for ASCMs to be successful, they should fly lower and faster and incorporate soft kill measures. Hence, future ship builders need to be prepared to counter more sophisticated threats when designing warships.
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