Effects of activation on selected Marine Corps Reserve prior service enlisted continuation rates in the post-9/11 era

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the continuation behavior of prior service Selected Marine Corps Reserve (SMCR) unit members in the grades of E3 to E5 and examines the effect of activation post-9/11 on 12-month continuation rates. The effect of monetary incentives is estimated and other significant predictors of continuation identified. Data were collected from the Total Force Data Warehouse (TFDW) for all Selected Reserve (SelRes) members who served between August 31, 2001 and October 31, 2009. Limited data to determine service history were collected from December 31, 1994 to July 31, 2001. Two probit regression models were estimated for the three tour lengths of 4-, 12- and 24-months. The models included explanatory variables for activation in support of a contingency operation, bonuses, economic conditions, ability, person-job fit, military experience, and demographics. Two additional models were estimated to isolate the effects of prior reserve experience in the active and Reserve Components (RC). Factors having positive effects on continuation were activation frequency, bonuses, the unemployment rate, prior RC experience, tour length, and multiple tours. Negative influencers on continuation included activation length, deploying outside the continental U.S., unexcused absence from drill, being female, being married, and being older.