Naval tactical decisions under uncertainty: some case studies
Gaver, Donald P. Jr.
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The problem addressed here was motivated by search problems encountered by antisubmarine warfare (ASW) forces. In particular, we postulate that a target submarine has been detected by a long-range sensor. After the detection, the target's location is not known precisely but is given as a probability distribution over some, possibly large, area of ocean. A mobile ASW platform with a specified maximum speed is then required to close the submarine for attack or surveillance. The searcher is provided with the initial target distribution and statistical information on historical target tracks. The searcher's problem is to select a track which will maximize the probability of detecting the target by some specified future time.
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