Discrete event simulation for the analysis of artillery fired projectiles from shore

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to provide decision makers a tool for analyzing the effectiveness of current United States Marine Corps artillery systems conducting anti-access area denial operations. Artillery effects against land targets are documented and understood, but a knowledge gap exists regarding the effectiveness of artillery operations in the littorals. Expeditionary Fire Support Mode--Maritime (EFSM) is a discrete event model that simulates current capabilities of Marine Corps artillery systems. Integrating an existing naval convoy model, two proof-of-concept littoral scenarios are presented that represent battalion and regimental artillery task organizations tasked to deny freedom of navigation (area denial) and stop an amphibious naval convoy (anti-access). Results from a designed experiment indicate artillery systems provide commanders a limited area denial capability, and should be employed where naval forces are limited in maneuverability and follow known routes close to shore. Overall, artillery achieve higher destruction rates in the area denial scenario than anti-access scenario. Factors important for successful anti-access area denial operations include unmanned aerial system speed and firing delay of the M777A2 lightweight howitzer. Data produced during experimentation demonstrates the EFSM provides analysts and decision makers a tool for exploring artillery effects in a littoral environment.