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dc.contributor.authorSanchez, Paul J.
dc.contributor.authorSanchez, Susan M.
dc.date.accessioned2017-10-13T15:20:21Z
dc.date.available2017-10-13T15:20:21Z
dc.date.issued2015-08
dc.identifier.citationPaul Sanchez, Susan Sanchez "A scalable discrete event stochastic agent-based model of infectious disease propagation," Proceedings of the 2015 Winter Simulation Conference, 2015 IEEE.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/56071
dc.descriptionThe article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2015.7408160en_US
dc.descriptionProceedings of the 2015 Winter Simulation Conference, L. Yilmaz, W. K V. Chan, I. Moon, T. M. K. Roeder, C. Macal, and M. D. Rossetti, eds.
dc.description.abstractWe propose a newstochastic model of infectious disease propagation. This model tracks individual outcomes, but does so without needing to create connectivity graphs for all members of the population. This makes the model scalable to much larger populations than traditional agent-based models have been able to cope with, while preserving the impact of variability during the critical early stages of an outbreak. This contrasts favorably with aggregate deterministic models, which ignore variability, and negates the requirement to assume “convenient” but potentially unrealistic distribution choices which aggregate stochastic models need in order to be analytically tractable. Initial explorations with our new model show behaviors similar to the observed course of Ebola outbreaks over the past 30+ years-while many outbreaks will fizzle out relatively quickly, some appear to reach a critical mass threshold and can turn into widespread epidemics.en_US
dc.format.extent8 p.en_US
dc.publisherIEEEen_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.en_US
dc.titleA scalable discrete event stochastic agent-based model of infectious disease propagationen_US
dc.typeConference paperen_US
dc.contributor.corporateNaval Postgraduate School (U.S.)en_US
dc.contributor.departmentOperations Research (OR)en_US


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