Formal process modeling to improve human-decision-making during test and evaluation range control

Abstract

Test and evaluation (T&E) managers often control testing via heuristics (i.e., using experience and lessons learned from previous testing to modify existing range control procedures). An exclusively heuristic approach may prove difficult in predicting test control issues with new systems. Given this limitation, this thesis poses the following question: Can formally modeling the process of conducting test range events expose previously overlooked ambiguities and identify high-value decision points? This thesis explores how formalization of these experience-based decisions as a process model representing a T&E event may reveal high-value decision nodes where certain decisions carry more weight or potential for impacts to a successful test. The thesis evaluates behavioral modeling techniques and language, ultimately using the Innoslate modeling software tool to construct a formal model of the range decision process. The thesis presents the results of the simulation runs in Innoslate and shows how having the formal model improves on the simplified model by expanding the process from two to eleven decision points. The thesis concludes that the formal model has use as a planning tool that can assist mangers in anticipating problems and focusing resources on resolving these issues.