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dc.contributor.advisorLin, Kyle Y.
dc.contributor.authorHuffstetler, Roger L.
dc.dateSep-17
dc.date.accessioned2017-11-07T23:39:37Z
dc.date.available2017-11-07T23:39:37Z
dc.date.issued2017-09
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/56138
dc.descriptionApproved for public release; distribution is unlimiteden_US
dc.description.abstractThe aircraft carrier serves as the centerpiece of the U.S. Navy’s carrier strike group (CSG), providing combatant commanders with immediate options for power projection and sea control. In times of crisis, the U.S. Navy must decide whether or not to send a CSG to an area to deter aggressive enemy action and maintain regional stability. This thesis seeks to quantify the deterrence value of a CSG using a game-theoretic framework. Consider a region with several nations, where two major players stand out: Blue and Red. The two players deploy limited forces and strengthen their positions by seeking alliances with the other nations in the region. We develop a Markov game to model the interactions between the two players and these other nations over a period of time. The game starts in Notional Operation Plan Phase 1 and continues until either player chooses to enter Phase 0 or Phase 2. From Blue’s standpoint, we define deterrence as the probability that Red will choose to enter Phase 0. In a case study based on a crisis in South China Sea, we find that quickly deploying forces and establishing diplomatic advantage are equally important in deterring aggression.en_US
dc.description.urihttp://archive.org/details/assessingdeterre1094556138
dc.publisherMonterey, California: Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. As such, it is in the public domain, and under the provisions of Title 17, United States Code, Section 105, it may not be copyrighted.en_US
dc.titleAssessing the deterrence value of carrier presence against adversary aggression in a coalition environmenten_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.contributor.secondreaderAppleget, Jeffrey A.
dc.contributor.departmentOperations Research (OR)
dc.subject.authorcarrier strike groupen_US
dc.subject.authorCSGen_US
dc.subject.authordeterrenceen_US
dc.subject.authorMarkov gameen_US
dc.description.recognitionOutstanding Thesis
dc.description.serviceCommander, United States Navyen_US
etd.thesisdegree.nameMaster of Science in Operations Researchen_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineOperations Researchen_US
etd.thesisdegree.grantorNaval Postgraduate Schoolen_US


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