Study of a terrain-based motion estimation model to predict the position of a moving target to enhance weapon probability of kill

Abstract

This thesis focuses on producing realistic time-space-position information (TSPI) data for moving targets as inputs for a weapon flyout model to compute the weapon Circular Error Probable (CEP) and the probability of damage. The velocity profile of the target is modeled based on the kinematic constraints for the type of vehicle and the type of path on which it is traveling. The discrete-time position profile can then be derived for the target and fed into the weapon flyout model to compute the associated measures of weapon effectiveness. The methodology is applied to both land vehicles traveling on specific roads, differentiated based on the road profiles, and small boats moving on the open sea to generate various sets of measures of weapon effectiveness for different scenarios. A program was also developed to enable a quick classification of the target’s expected route of advancement into one of the six road types. This allows the user to perform quick analysis on the target’s planned route of travel and produce measures of weapon effectiveness, which can then be readily utilized for swift decision making on the weapon options available.