Improving the Integrated Training Center (ITC) model to achieve more accurate time to train estimates

Abstract

The F-35B Joint Strike Fighter is critical to the future of Marine Corps fixed-wing aviation. The ability to man the Joint Strike Fighter with properly trained pilots is as important as the development and acquisition of the aircraft itself. This thesis examines the Integrated Training Center (ITC) model, which simulates the training process in order to determine expected time to train for Marine pilots trained at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida. First, we demonstrate that weather is an important factor in the Integrated Training Center model. Legal and financial constraints restrict modification of the ITC model, so we create a replica that is statistically similar to the flight management process found in that model. We then modify the replica model to more accurately reflect reality. This improved model uses a continuous time Markov process to model weather. We show that the independent weather assumption in the ITC model is inappropriate. We recommend modifying the ITC model to reflect good weather as a resource necessary to conduct a flight, and one that is only intermittently available. Ultimately, these tools will be provided to decision makers so that they may implement these changes to make better decisions.