An exploratory study of Sendero Luminoso's dynamics
Devoto Gagliardi, Ricardo R.
Fox, William P.
Burks, Robert E.
MetadataShow full item record
Any insurgency is a complex and dynamic phenomenon, as is the process of developing agood strategy to counter it. Understanding such types of dynamic complexity demands that strategists expand the boundaries of their mental models. A good strategy does not rely exclusively on a strategist's talent; it is conditioned on a holistic understanding of causal relationships encompassed in the problem and interactions among variables. This thesis analyzes the Peruvian insurgency of Sendero Luminoso through the lens of System Dynamics. This study explores eight fundamental concepts in System Dynamics in relation to the Peruvian insurgency: system parameters, system pattern of behavior, loop dominance, causal relationships, system's feedback structure, system's physical structure, decision-making process, and attributes of tangible quantities. It is demonstrated that useful strategic insight can be obtained from System Dynamics models and subsequent simulations. Furthermore, this work may help to illuminate a few of the factors involved in the defeat of Sendero Luminoso, and might assist policy makers and military strategists to craft efficient counterinsurgency strategies in the future. Finally, this thesis constitutes the initial step for the development of a formal and complete System Dynamics Model of the Peruvian insurgency.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Jones, Frank Thomas Bradford (1986-06);The Sendero Luminoso, or Shining Path, rebellion in Peru was launched during the summer of 1980. Although the group was relatively unknown, and initially dismissed as a weak and unimportant movement among the Indian ...
A rationale for the outcomes of insurgencies: a comparison case study between insurgencies in Peru and Nepal Thapa, Manoj (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2014-12);The left-wing insurgency in Peru waged by the Shining Path, or Sendero Luminoso (SL), and the Maoist insurgency in Nepal launched by the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN(M)) have impacted their respective states and societies. ...
Palomino Fonseca, Miguel A. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1991-03);This thesis examines the application of local area network (LAN) technology to the Peruvian Air Force Computer Center. The current Peruvian Air Force Computer Center communication system and its problems are discussed, ...