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dc.contributor.advisorFox, William P.
dc.contributor.advisorBurks, Robert E.
dc.contributor.authorDevoto Gagliardi, Ricardo R.
dc.dateDec-17
dc.date.accessioned2018-02-07T20:36:54Z
dc.date.available2018-02-07T20:36:54Z
dc.date.issued2017-12
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/56906
dc.descriptionApproved for public release; distribution is unlimiteden_US
dc.description.abstractAny insurgency is a complex and dynamic phenomenon, as is the process of developing agood strategy to counter it. Understanding such types of dynamic complexity demands that strategists expand the boundaries of their mental models. A good strategy does not rely exclusively on a strategist's talent; it is conditioned on a holistic understanding of causal relationships encompassed in the problem and interactions among variables. This thesis analyzes the Peruvian insurgency of Sendero Luminoso through the lens of System Dynamics. This study explores eight fundamental concepts in System Dynamics in relation to the Peruvian insurgency: system parameters, system pattern of behavior, loop dominance, causal relationships, system's feedback structure, system's physical structure, decision-making process, and attributes of tangible quantities. It is demonstrated that useful strategic insight can be obtained from System Dynamics models and subsequent simulations. Furthermore, this work may help to illuminate a few of the factors involved in the defeat of Sendero Luminoso, and might assist policy makers and military strategists to craft efficient counterinsurgency strategies in the future. Finally, this thesis constitutes the initial step for the development of a formal and complete System Dynamics Model of the Peruvian insurgency.en_US
dc.publisherMonterey, California: Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.rightsCopyright is reserved by the copyright owner.en_US
dc.titleAn exploratory study of Sendero Luminoso's dynamicsen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.contributor.departmentDefense Analysis (DA)
dc.subject.authorinsurgencyen_US
dc.subject.authorSendero Luminosoen_US
dc.subject.authorshining pathen_US
dc.subject.authorsystem dynamicsen_US
dc.subject.authorsystem dynamic modelingen_US
dc.subject.authordecision making processen_US
dc.subject.authorfeedback structureen_US
dc.subject.authorstock and flow structureen_US
dc.subject.authorsystem's parameters pattern of behavioren_US
dc.subject.authorpattern analysisen_US
dc.description.serviceCommander, Peruvian Navyen_US
etd.thesisdegree.nameMaster of Science in Defense Analysisen_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineDefense Analysisen_US
etd.thesisdegree.grantorNaval Postgraduate Schoolen_US


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