Understanding violence through social media
Frost, Harold G.
Evans, Anthony W.
Hodges, Robert H., Jr.
Warren, T. Camber
MetadataShow full item record
While social media analysis has been widely utilized to predict various market and political trends, its utilization to improve geospatial conflict prediction in contested environments remains understudied. To determine the feasibility of social media utilization in conflict prediction, we compared historical conflict data and social media metadata, utilizing over 829,537 geo-referenced messages sent through the Twitter network within Iraq from August 2013 to July 2014. From our research, we conclude that social media metadata has a positive impact on conflict prediction when compared with historical conflict data. Additionally, we find that utilizing the most extreme negative terminology from a locally derived social media lexicon provided the most significant predictive accuracy for determining areas that would experience subsequent violence. We suggest future research projects center on improving the conflict prediction capability of social media data and include social media analysis in operational assessments.
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Gergen, Kenneth J.; McNamee, Sheila; Barrett, Frank (2001);Most of us feel more comfortable in certain groups than others, and indeed find certain people just plain wrong headed or evil - perhaps neo-Nazis, the KKK, the Mafia, terrorist groups. This sense of alterity - distance ...
George, Michael J.; Bishop, John D. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2011-06);The growing interconnectedness of nations through globalization, and the threat of international terrorism as a destabilizing force, has increased the international community's concern for stable governance in the developing ...
Coffman, James H. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1994-06);Ethnic conflict is a contemporary issue plaguing many states as the international system moves towards a New World Order. However, despite the importance of ethnic-based violence and nationalistic social revolutions, current ...