Effect of state unemployment rate on attrition for first-term U.S. Navy enlisted attrition
Thompson, Erica L.
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This thesis analyzes the effects of unemployment on first-term attrition for U.S. Navy enlisted personnel in the pay grades of E-1 to E-9 with no prior service that attrited between fiscal years 1999 and 2007. Four separate probit models were formed to analyze the effect of the state unemployment rate on first-term attrition for Navy enlisted personnel for cohorts during six months of service, 12 months of service, 24 months of service and 45 months of service. A second model type analyzed attrition over a specific period of time. Attrition was estimated during six months, between 6-12 months of service, between 12--24 months of service and between 24--45 months of service. These models were developed to predict the likelihood of an enlisted sailor attriting when state unemployment rates increase by one percentage point. The independent variables for the two models types included demographic variables, such as Black, White, Asian, Native American, other race, education years, age, female, male, AFQT__score, pay grade dependents, no dependents, first enlistment with bonus, and first enlistment no bonus. Dummy variables for 1999-2007 and dummy variables for states were created to explain any bias of attrition by circumstances, such as the economy. Consistent negative effects on attrition included unemployment rate, Blacks, AFQT scores, years of education and pay grade. Positive influences included age, having no dependents, and females.
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