Analysis of minority officer recruiting in the U.S. Marine Corps

Abstract

Marine Corps Recruiting Command administers minority officer recruiting, the brunt of which is the responsibility of Officer Selection Officers. Currently, minority officer accessions fail to reflect the demographic composition of the nation's college market. To increase minority rates, MCRC must align minority officer applicant submission goals with the population of eligible, test-score-qualified, male, baccalaureate degree-seeking students. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze whether current minority applicant submission goals are reasonably allocated. The first phase develops a propensity-weighted Qualified Candidate Population (PW-QCP) model to provide college market estimates. Phase 2 compares these PW-QCP estimates with five-year minority officer applicant trends and minority submission goals. The third phase builds a probit model to predict the probability of accession based on applicant characteristics. The results show that submission goals should be modified to reflect the changing demographics of the nation and that the probability of minority accession is dependent on qualification characteristics that exceed those of the average applicant. The findings suggest that increasing minority representation depends on: (1) submission goals that align approximately with PW-QCP estimates; (2) submission goals that are met by Marine Corps Districts; and (3) minority applicants who can meet or exceed average eligibility requirements.