Developing Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model (STORM) Analytic Utility, Phase II

Abstract

OPNAV N81 conducts analyses to inform senior leadership on decisions that could shape the U.S. Navy for decades to come. These analyses are exceedingly complex, involve numerous unknowns, and must adhere to strict study timelines. To support these studies, OPNAV N81 regularly uses the modeling environment Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model (STORM). The objectives of this Phase II effort were to build on the STORM post processing analysis tools developed in Phase I, rigorously test the new capabilities, assist OPNAV N81 in applying them in their studies, and facilitate their use in the broader STORM community. To enable STORM users to quickly obtain insights from a set of STORM replications, a software tool called STORMMiner was developed, refined, tested, and delivered to OPNAV N81. STORMMiner is a collection of unclassified, non-proprietary, government-owned R and scala scripts. STORMMiner presents to the user a number of analysis artifacts (tables, graphics, etc.) that more quickly and effectively bring the analyst to “insights.” These insights may help illuminate “dark corners of the scenario” no analyst has yet seen or recognized, and thus help with quality control, debugging, and highlighting areas for additional scrutiny. These tools, in combination with new management constructs, has enabled OPNSAV N81 analysts to complete their studies “approximately 33% faster and 16% less expensive” (Morgan et al., 2016). Naval Research Program, Executive Summary