Evaluation And Documentation of Marine Corps Manpower Simulation Model
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Manpower Studies and Analysis Branch (MSAB) developed an agent-based simulation with network architecture and vacancy-based promotion system prototype, the Manpower Simulation Model (MSM). Written in JavaTM, the prototype model provides the Marine Corps with forecasting, scenario analysis, and policy evaluation capabilities that are timely, accurate, and integrated under a single framework. (Garrick, 2014). This work evaluated the source code and optimized for efficiency wherever possible, provided documentation for the code where necessary, and wrote a user’s manual for executing the model. A prototype graphical user interface (GUI) was also developed. Preliminary sensitivity analysis was performed on the model using an advanced design of experiment (DOE). Important factors affecting measures such as gains, losses, retention, and lateral moves were identified. Additional validation analysis was performed to evaluate MSM’s predictive power when compared with historical data. There it was found that for some years the model performed well (within ±20% of actual values), whereas for other years the model’s predications were very far off. It was not clear whether this was due to the model, the input data, or uncontrollable factors, such as unforeseen operations. Overall, the model’s predications for end strength tended to be quite accurate.
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