Estimating the Depth of the Navy Recruiting Market
Buttrey, Samuel E.
Whitaker, Lyn R.
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This report summarizes work done for the Navy Recruiting Command (NRC) through the Naval Postgraduate School’s Navy Reimbursable Program (NRP). It includes a description of two theses, those of Monaghan (2016) and Fulton (2016). Both theses are deliverables for this project. We get around the problem that numbers of recruits are determined by recruiting effort by considering national leads. We conclude that using ZIP-code level can induce both noise and correlation and common approaches neglect important spatial correlations. If ZIP codes are to be used there should be a process to detect those that can never produce recruits. Zero-inflated negative binomial and random forest models both tend to over-predict recruits in highly-populated areas. We recommend fitting separate models in separate areas using Navy-specific data.
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