Patterns of Marine Corps Reserve continuation behavior pre- and post-9/11
Lizarraga, Joseph M.
Mehay, Stephen L.
Price, Jonathan D.
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This thesis identifies the effects of mobilization on Marine Corps Reserve non-prior service (NPS) personnel continuation rates. The research evaluates the retention effects of reservists' expectations about mobilization by analyzing retention data from three separate time periods - Pre-9/11, Overlap-9/11, and Post-9/11. The analysis used monthly observations for NPS reserve enlisted personnel who have completed their initial 6-year obligated drilling contracts. This research analyzed the end of contract "waterfall" period, which describes the drastic drop in reserve continuation that takes place upon the completion of NPS reservists drilling obligation. Analysis was performed using multivariate models for each time period, which consider the effects of mobilization, as well as other explanatory variables for demographics, military performance, education benefits, unit type, geographic region, and unemployment rate. The effects of mobilization on continuation were found to differ depending on mobilization duration, frequency, and time period. Factors negatively influencing continuation were found to include general overseas deployment and longer mobilizations. However, the negative impacts on continuation were found to decrease or become statistically insignificant for those who enlisted after 9/11. Shorter mobilization durations were found to positively impact continuation rates.
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