Quantifying the benefits of manned-unmanned teaming in naval operations via data farming

Abstract

Extensive experimentation is needed to identify and assess the capabilities and tactics that will provide the most value in developing and integrating unmanned systems into the Navy. This presentation highlights recent research by three NPS officer-students (Solem 2016, Tanalega 2018, Tilus 2018) who use different simulation modeling platforms to investigate manned-unmanned teaming for naval operations. Solem (2016) uses Map Aware Non-uniform Automata (MANA), a stable agent-based modeling platform developed for defense applications by New Zealand. Tanalega (2018) and Tilus (2018) use Orchestrated Simulation Through Modeling (OSM), together with the Littoral Combat Ship Integrated Toolkit for Mission Engineering Using Simulation (LITMUS). NSWC Dahlgren is the lead developer for OSM and LITMUS, teaming with the NPS SEED Center for software development and testing.

Solem and Tilus explore combinations of a manned P-8 Poseidon aircraft and an unmanned Medium Displacement Unmanned Surface Vessel (MDUSV) in an antisubmarine warfare (ASW) scenario. Specifically, they investigate the performance of each platform operating separately followed by an examination of manned-unmanned teaming for the P-8 and MDUSV. Through parallel computation and efficient design of experiments, they simulate tens of thousands of ASW missions and vary multiple red and blue employment approaches and capabilities. The OSM/LITMUS results show that MDUSV operating alone has the lowest probability of killing the red submarine. The P-8 operating alone and the P-8 teamed with the MDUSV have nearly perfect performance in terms of red kills, although the latter reduces the conditional mean time to kill by roughly 10%.

Comparison between the LITMUS studies and the earlier MANA study reveal that the OSM/LITMUS results are overly optimistic. Further improvement in the modeling platform is needed -- including the provision of a capability for representing the localization phase between the P-8's initial detection and the subsequent time and additional sonobuoys required to locate, track, and target the threat. Nonetheless, the preliminary results show substantive benefits of manned-unmanned teaming.

In related work, Tanalega (2018) examines the use of MDUSVs equipped with different capability packages and tactics in a surface warfare scenario. His data farming investigation varies sensor ranges, force dispersions, formations, and emissions control policies. The results show that the addition of MDUSV to a surface force can triple the chance that it is the first to fire. The research also provides guidance about desirable sensor characteristics and MDUSV tactics.

References

Solem, K. (2016). Quantifying the potential benefits of antisubmarine warfare (ASW) continuous trail unmanned vessels (ACTUV) in a tactical ASW Scenario (Master's thesis). Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA.

Tanalega, J. (2018). Analyzing unmanned surface tactics with the Lightweight Interstitials Toolbox for Mission Engineering using Simulation (Master's thesis). Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA.

Tilus, P. (2018). Assessing Orchestrated Simulation Through Modeling to quantify the benefits of unmanned-manned teaming in a tactical ASW scenario (Master's thesis). Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA.