Escape from the Delta: preparation and evacuation for catastrophic flooding in California Emergency Management Agency Region IV

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Author
Yuhas, Timothy C.
Date
2011-03Advisor
Alderson, David L.
Second Reader
Carlyle, Matthew
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We model the regional highway system of Central California and consider the challenge of evacuating a highly populated region from the threat of catastrophic flood. Specifically, we build a minimum cost network flow problem to represent the movement of more than one million people within Yolo, Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus Counties. Our model solves for "best case" evacuation routes and clearing times assuming perfect knowledge of flood inundation and road conditions. Our model is large but efficient, solving 35 separate scenarios in less than 45 minutes. We develop two basic evacuation scenarios, each having many variations, resulting in 490 total scenarios. For these, we analyze model assumptions and the effect of interruptions to evacuation behavior for a range of "what-if" situations.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
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