An analysis of the effect of commissioning source on the retention and promotion of Surface Warfare Officers (SWO) in the U.S. Navy

Abstract

This thesis investigates the effect of commissioning programs on career progression for Navy surface warfare officers (SWOs). This study specifies and estimates three multivariate regression models to analyze the relationship between commissioning source and officer performance using retention and promotion to O-4 as performance measures. As a measure of retention, we used retention after expiration of the initial minimum service requirement. The data was acquired from Officer Master File (OMF) via the Navy Econometric Modeling (NEM) online data system. The file contained 10,295 observations. All observations were surface warfare officers who were before the promotion board between fiscal years 1994 through 2004. The data contained information about demographics, professional and educational background, and separation and promotion information for officers. The analysis of all three multivariate regression models indicates that commissioning source is a significant determinant of retention and promotion for the SWO community. Contrary to the initial assumption, while OCS graduates have the highest probability of staying in the SW community, USNA graduates have the lowest probability. Although USNA graduates were initially expected to have higher promotion rates, the results suggest that they are less likely to promote to the grade of O-4 than officers commissioned through the NROTC-contract program. However, USNA graduates have a higher probability of promotion than officers from OCS, the NROTC scholarship program, and from "other sources."