A Bayesian model to incorporate human factors in commanders' decision making

Abstract

In the near future, commanders and their respective staffs will interact with subordinate and opposing forces whose physical and cognitive behaviors are represented in software and simulation. This paper presents a model of the human factors and environmental variables that influence stress and risk assessment. These variables contribute to situational awareness, which is a force protection issue. Leaders integrate information from various sources. These sources range from observations, training, orders, and reports. The leaders use this knowledge with doctrine and tactics to develop an understanding of the situation. This paper describes a Bayesian network model of the variables associated with risk assessment and stress in combat scenarios. The level of situational awareness is determined by what the commander knows about the unit and the surrounding conditions. This model lends structure to the environment and enables a probabilistic interpretation of risk and stress levels. This model is applicable to various combat scenarios ranging from brief engagements to sustained operations.