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dc.contributor.authorXue, Yongkang
dc.contributor.authorDiallo, Ismaila
dc.contributor.authorLi, Wenkai
dc.contributor.authorNeelin, David
dc.contributor.authorChu, Peter C.
dc.contributor.authorVasic, Ratko
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Weidong
dc.contributor.authorLi, Qian
dc.contributor.authorZhu, Yuejian
dc.contributor.authorFu, Congbin
dc.contributor.authorOaida, Catalina M.
dc.contributor.authorRobinson, David A.
dc.date.accessioned2018-06-06T23:14:08Z
dc.date.available2018-06-06T23:14:08Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.identifier.citationXue, Y., Diallo, I., Li, W., D. Neelin, J., Chu, P. C., Vasic, R., et al., 2018: Spring land surface and subsurface temperature anomalies and subsequent downstream late spring-summer droughts/floods in North America and East Asia. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028246en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/58470
dc.description.abstractSea surface temperature (SST) variability has been shown to have predictive value for land precipitation, although SSTs are unable to fully predict intraseasonal to interannual hydrologic extremes. The possible remote effects of large-scale land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature (SUBT) anomalies in geographical areas upstream and closer to the areas of drought/flood have largely been ignored. Here evidence from climate observations and model simulations addresses these effects. Evaluation of observational data using Maximum Covariance Analysis identifies significant correlations between springtime 2-m air temperature (T2 m) cold (warm) anomalies in both the western U.S. and the Tibetan Plateau and downstream drought (flood) events in late spring/summer. To support these observational findings, climate models are used in sensitivity studies, in which initial LST/SUBT anomaly is imposed to produce observed T2 m anomaly, to demonstrate a causal relationship for two important cases: between spring warm T2 m/LST/SUBT anomalies in western U.S. and the extraordinary 2015 flood in Southern Great Plains and adjacent regions and between spring cold T2 m/LST/SUBT anomalies in the Tibetan Plateau and the severe 2003 drought south of the Yangtze River region. The LST/SUBT downstream effects in North America are associated with a large-scale atmospheric stationary wave extending eastward from the LST/SUBT anomaly region. The effects of SST in these cases are also tested and compared with the LST/SUBT effects. These results suggest that consideration of LST/SUBT anomalies has the potential to add value to intraseasonal prediction of dry and wet conditions, especially extreme drought/flood events. The results suggest the importance of developing land data and models capable of preserving observed soil memory.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was supported by the grants from U.S. National Science Foundation AGS-1346813, AGS-1419526, and AGS-1540518 (J. D. N.). This work is also supported by the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change, China
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.en_US
dc.titleSpring land surface and subsurface temperature anomalies and subsequent downstream late spring-summer droughts/floods in North America and East Asiaen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.contributor.corporateNaval Postgraduate School (U.S.)en_US
dc.contributor.departmentOceanographyen_US
dc.description.funderAGS-1346813
dc.description.funderAGS-1419526
dc.description.funderAGS-1540518 (J. D. N.)


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