Dogs that Aren't Barking, Much: The Rise of China's Strategic Forces and Regional Reactions and Implications (DRAFT)

Abstract

China is the only country of the traditional nuclear powers whose nuclear arsenal is growing in size and capability. It is diversifying its delivery systems, modernizing its missiles, and building up its overall warhead arsenal. Further, it is engaged in a substantial buildup of conventional missiles. These are certainly facilitated by the economic and general military rise of China. It is less clear that China's strategic arsenal has in turn supported the gen- eral rise of China. That is, what benefits has China received given its en- hancements of its strategic forces? This chapter will begin by charting the changes in China's strategic arsenal, and compare that broadly to other re- gional and global players in this arena. It will then examine the ways in which nuclear weapons and strategic forces in general are thought to enhance the power of nations and assess the degree to which that has occurred for China.