Unconventional Assisted Recovery (UAR) historical case study analysis and quantitative feasibility assessment

Abstract

During the Gulf War, 34 Coalition pilots were shot down, yet only 6 were recovered by conventional CSAR. Consequently, SOF planners began to consider the impact of integrated air defenses upon personnel recovery and to consider a more proactive method of recovery. While serving as a member of the SOCCENT Unconventional Warfare Working Group and as the lead planner for the first UAR training program and exercise for 3rd Special Forces Group, I observed that there was little consideration of similar historical operations and that operators were skeptical of UAR. The purpose of this thesis is to assist the special operations community with the development of doctrine for UAR and to offer SOF commanders a feasibility assessment tool. This purpose was achieved by: (1) Developing a historical perspective of similar missions through case study analysis to determine, via controlled comparison, the key independent variables that determine the success of ground-based SOF recovery operations, and by (2) Conducting quantitative modeling of UAR to determine, through a range of numerically based conditions, a range of feasibility and doctrinal implications for UAR.