How agent based models can be utilized to explore and exploit non-linearity and intangibles inherent in guerrilla warfare

Download
Author
Ipekci, Arif Ilker
Date
2002-06Advisor
Lucas, Thomas
Second Reader
Manago, Saverio
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Since the end of WWII, a host of groups and states have pursued their interests in the Low Intensity Conflict (LIC) environment. One of the characteristics of LIC is that it is executed mostly by the rules of asymmetric war or guerrilla warfare. This thesis utilizes the recently developed agent-based model Map Aware Non-Uniform Automata (MANA) to explore nonlinearity and intangibles inherent in guerrilla warfare. An infiltration scenario is developed based on the author's experiences fighting guerrillas in the mountains of Southeast Turkey. To simultaneously investigate the effects of as many as 22 input variables, recently developed Near Orthogonal Latin Hypercube Designs and Fractional Factorial Designs are used. Utilizing a personal computer and the computational capabilities of supercomputers run by Mitre for the Marine Corps Combat Development Center (MCCDC), approximately 200,000 MANA runs were completed. Several statistical models are developed and compared using a variety of diverse statistical techniques, including Cluster Analysis, Neural Networks, Regression Trees, Linear Regression, and Bayesian Networks. The results of the analysis suggest that the outcome of an infiltration scenario is heavily dependent on the Red agent parameters. The analysis also reveals the Red Stealth parameter as the most important factor in predicting the MOEs.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
WHEN THE “GOLDEN HOUR” IS DEAD: PREPARING INDIGENOUS GUERRILLA MEDICAL NETWORKS FOR UNCONVENTIONAL CONFLICTS
Lyon, Regan F. (Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2021-12);The capability to treat and recuperate casualties to return to combat is a vital component of a force’s defense strategy. The current luxury of large specialized medical teams and expedient patient evacuations will no ... -
Guerrilla violence in Colombia: examining causes and consequences
Roman, Juan F. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1994-06);Colombia's history is replete with acts of political violence. Guerrilla violence has been of major historical significance in the country, where guerrilla groups have operated without interruption since the mid-1940s. ... -
The peace processes of Colombia and El Salvador : a comparative study
Gantiva Arias, Diego A.; Palacios Luna, Marco A. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1997-06);Colombia and El Salvador, two Latin American countries, have developed similar counterinsurgency processes and started similar processes of peace negotiations between the insurgent armies and the forces of order. One peace ...