Tropical Cyclone Motion Studies

Abstract

Globally, tropical cyclone characteristics such as activity, genesis location, and track types have been observed to vary over space and time scales that range from seasonal to that of an individual cyclone. Because of this hierarchical structure to the variability in tropical cyclone characteristics, the long-term goal of this research is to define a synthesized view of the large- scale, synoptic-scale, and mesoscale components that contribute to the variability in tropical cyclone characteristics. Over large space scales and long time scales, the long-term goal is to improve forecast accuracy of tropical cyclone characteristics into the medium range beyond 72 h. At the opposite end of the space and time spectrum, the goal is to improve understanding of the potential effects of mesoscale variabilities in tropical cyclone structure on the short-term motion, formation, intensification, and structure change of a tropical cyclone. Additionally, a long-term goal is to understand how variabilities in the environment and tropical cyclone structure differ between developing, mature, and decaying tropical cyclones. Because decaying tropical cyclones often transition to fast-moving and rapidly-developing extratropical cyclones that may contain gale- or storm-force winds, special attention is given to improving understanding and prediction of the extratropical transition phase of a decaying tropical cyclone.