AN ASSESSMENT OF LIKELIHOOD: POTENTIAL COOPERATION BETWEEN MEXICAN DRUG CARTELS AND AL QAEDA OR ISIS
Moeykens, Justin M.
Looney, Robert E.
Bruneau, Thomas C.
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The likelihood of cooperative relationships between Mexican drug cartels and Al Qaeda’s core or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is a matter of debate and U.S. national security. Despite the significance of the issue, the topic is widely void of objective analysis. When analyzed and compared, the organizational attributes of strategy toward the United States, group identity, ideology, and decision-making authority show stark differences between these groups. With these organizational attributes established and then placed in the context of what makes cooperative relationships work within the private sector, cooperation between groups emerges as highly unlikely. While the occurrence of a relationship between these groups is doubtful, if it were to occur, the implications to U.S. national security could be catastrophic. As such, this thesis concludes with a policy recommendation that the United States must continue to publicly monitor the potential relationships to deter them.
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