PREDICTING U.S. ARMY FIRST-TERM ATTRITION AFTER INITIAL ENTRY TRAINING
Speten, Karey J.
Anglemyer, Andrew T.
Alt, Jonathan K.
MetadataShow full item record
The United States Army recently announced a reduction of its 2018 recruiting goal due to a challenging recruiting environment and a shrinking population of eligible candidates. However, the Sergeant Major of the Army has stated that the current improvement in the retention of existing soldiers should mitigate the loss of new recruits. The goal of this research is to identify demographic and administrative factors of active-component, first-term enlisted soldiers who have completed their Initial Entry Training to construct predictive models capable of identifying soldiers with high chances of failure in completing their initial contractual obligation. We construct a binary logistic regression model and a random forest classification model to predict a soldier’s probability of first-term attrition based on the individual’s unique service record. We find that a soldier’s deployment history and the duration of the initial contract are significant predictors of whether a soldier will complete his or her first term. Knowledge of the key factors, and other influencing variables, assists the Army Resiliency Directorate in creation of models and tools to better advise Army leadership and development of intervention strategies and preventative measures to prevent the loss of first-term soldiers.
Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Mortlock, Robert (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2017-07); NPS-AM-17-211This Enhanced Combat Helmet (ECH) case study encourages critical analysis of a U.S. Defense Department project at two key decision points: project start and production. The case centers on the development, testing, and ...
Ottilige, Donald D. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1996-06);This thesis is based on proposing a system architecture for the Army Special Operations Forces (ARSOF) soldier. This system architecture will be based on object orientation and include Quality of Life (QOL) and Base ...
Miller, Nita Lewis; Shattuck, Lawrence G.; Tvaryanas, Anthony P.; Matsangas, Panagiotis (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2010); NPS-OR-10-011This study examined the effect of alterations in the timing of sleep within the circadian cycle on the amount of total nightly sleep and its influence on various indicators of mood and performance of U.S. Army Soldiers ...