PREDICTING THE SPREAD OF TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS USING GRAPHS
Vanderzee, Anthony B.
Huddleston, Samuel H.
Hammond, Jesse R.
MetadataShow full item record
The U.S. Defense and Intelligence communities expend vast amounts of resources tracking and trying to predict the geographic spread of terrorist groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Current approaches to this problem use a variety of social, demographic, and geographic data to make predictions about the spread of a terrorist organization. We demonstrate a novel approach that converts the geographic area of interest, Iraq and Syria, into a graph with the populated places as nodes and the road network as the edges of the graph. We then use this graph to compute graph-based statistics such as measures of centrality and first-order neighbor statistics on the nodes in the graph. By adding the graph-based features, we combine social, demographic, and geographic data with data that quantifies the relationships between the populated places in Iraq and Syria. This ultimately improves predictive performance for predicting future territorial gains and losses by ISIS. Furthermore, our models demonstrate that the graph-based features are the most influential variables in predicting whether or not a node will be in or out of ISIS territory.
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Nielsen, Kenneth E.; Thomson, Robert L. (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2013-12);More than a decade after the attacks on 9/11, United States leadership continues to place a high priority on pursuing terrorists and denying them safe havens from which they can recruit, train, and plan operations. In a ...
Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS) (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate SchoolCenter for Homeland Defense and Security, 2011);10 Years After: the 9/11 Essays. Homeland Security Affairs (HSA) is pleased to present this special collection of essays in remembrance of the ten-year anniversary of September 11, 2001. We chose to honor those who lost ...
Tng, Eng Hock (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2013-03);The impact of the September 11, 2001, attack by Al Qaeda was felt worldwide with increased security measures. However, maritime security measures are not as encompassing. This thesis investigated the possibility of maritime ...