CONTINUATION STUDY FOR THE SELECTED MARINE CORPS RESERVE
Brose, Lily M.
Anglemyer, Andrew T.
Lucas, Thomas W.
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This continuation study follows a cohort of Marines who enlisted in the Selected Marine Corps Reserve (SMCR) in FY09. For the purposes of this thesis, continuation is defined as members lost to other reserve or active Marine Corps components. These options include transferring to the Individual Ready Reserve (IRR), Active Reserve (AR), Active Component (AC), Individual Mobilization Augmentee (IMA), or leaving the Marine Corps Reserve altogether. Every person in this population was on a 6x2 contract (six-year commitment to the SMCR and the remaining two served in the SMCR or IRR). This study implements two logistic regressions and classification trees at different career milestones. The main research goal is to identify significant impacts of mobilization, prior service history, and demographics on the continuation rates of Reserve enlisted. At the six-year mark, a combat deployment history and rank (relative to E-1) have a positive impact on transferring to another component. Furthermore, being a minority or living in the Western U.S. (relative to the Northeast) has a negative impact on continuation. The classification tree found rank and deployment rate to be the best classifiers of SMCR retention. At the eight-year mark, average conduct score has a positive impact on continuation, while number of dependents and commissioning status have negative impacts on continuation. The classification tree found average conduct score and deployment rate to be the best classifiers.
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