An exploratory analysis on the effects of human factors on combat outcomes

Abstract

The ongoing revolution in military affairs is transforming the nature of warfare. Modern combat systems are increasingly more effective yet more complex to operate. Nonetheless, their complexities cannot be compared to human behaviors-which remain the most important factor in combat. Within Project Albert, an agent-based model called SOCRATES has been developed to enable users to explore the emergent behaviors of the agents. A deep operation scenario is developed to explore the effects of human factors on combat outcomes. Two experimental designs are used in this investigation: A Latin Hypercube and a Full-Factorial Design. Using the computing facilities at NPS, MITRE and MHPCC (Maui High Performance Computing Center), a total of 174,960 runs are made. The data suggest the existence of emergent patterns, and provide some insights into the question of how much more capable a smaller force must be in order to effectively battle a larger force. In addition, the analysis shows that the Latin Hypercube Design is able to identify the same significant factors in the scenario as are obtained by the Factorial Design, but with much fewer runs.