A New Tropical Cyclone Dynamic Initialization Technique Using High Temporal and Spatial Density Atmospheric Motion Vectors and Airborne Field Campaign Data
Hendricks, Eric A.
Bell, Michael M.
Elsberry, Russell L.
Velden, Chris S.
MetadataShow full item record
Background: Initialization of tropical cyclones in numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems is a great challenge: Mass-wind ﬁeld balance; Secondary circulation and heating; Asymmetries. There can be large adjustments in structure and intensity in the ﬁrst 24 hours if the initial vortex is not in balance: Spurious gravity waves; Spin-up (model and physics). Existing mesoscale NWP model TC (Tropical Cyclone) initialization strategies: Bogus vortex, cold start from global analyses; 3DVAR or 4DVAR, possibly with synthetic observations; EnKF (Ensemble Kalman Filter); Dynamic initialization. Dynamic initialization allows vortex to have improved balance and physics spin-up at the initial time (e.g., Hendricks et al. 2013, 2011; Nguyen and Chen 2011; Fiorino and Warner 1981; Hoke and Anthes 1976). Himawari-8 geostationary satellite has capability of continuous imagery (10-minutes) over the full disk: New GOES-R satellites will have same capability. This will allow for unprecedented observations of tropical cyclones. However, current data assimila1on systems are not capable of ingesting such high temporal observations (Atmospheric Mo1on Vectors - AMVs). Hourly AMVs are produced, and thinned to 100-kilometer spacing in the horizontal. An entirely new data assimilation concept is required to utilize these observations.
32nd AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; 18-22 Apr. 2016; San Juan, PR; United StatesApproved for public release, distribution unlimited
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Feasibility of an operational tropical cyclone prediction model for the western North Pacific area Elsberry, Russell L. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1975-05); NPS-5lEs75051Recent developments in numerical simulation of tropical cyclones and in limited-area, fine-mesh modeling of non-tropical systems are reviewed. Feasibility of developing an operational model for the western North ...
Langland, Rodger Alfred (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1972-03);A barotropic primitive equation model on a global tropical grid using operational real data is used to test various boundary conditions and methods of initialization including numerical variational analysis. Comparisons ...
Nguyen, Thuy D.; Irvine, Cynthia E.; Levin, Timothy E.; McEvilley, Michael (International Common Criteria Conference (ICCC), Rome, Italy, September 2007, 2007-09-01);The U.S. Government Protection Profile for Separation Kernels in Environments Requiring High Robustness (SKPP) is undergoing evaluation. During its authoring process, new extended functional and assurance requirements were ...