Modeling man-made epidemics

Abstract

This thesis develops a mathematical model to explore epidemic spread through the Ground Combat Element (GCE) of the Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU). The model will simulate an epidemic caused by a biological attack using an agent that has the ability to spread through person-to-person contact (small pox, hemorrhagic fever, etc.) A stochastic modeling process will be used along with widely accepted mathematical formulas for an SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed) epidemic model. A heterogeneous population composed of numerous homogenous subgroups with varying interaction rates simulates the unique structure of military combat units. The model will be evaluated to determine which units facilitate the most rapid spread of the epidemic. The model will then test a number of different scenarios to determine the effects of varying quarantine techniques, vaccination strategies and protective postures on the spread of the disease.