EXPLORING CHARACTERISTICS OF AN EFFECTIVE MIX OF PRECISION AND VOLUME INDIRECT FIRE IN URBAN OPERATIONS USING AGENT-BASED SIMULATION

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Authors
Cai, Licun Edwin
Subjects
agent-based simulation
design of experiments
Pareto optimal frontier
multi-objectives evolutionary algorithm
circular error probable
Advisors
Sanchez, Susan M.
Date of Issue
2018-09
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
As the world continues its rapid rise in urbanization, the battlefield of the future will likely be urban. This thesis explores the effective mix of three types of 155mm artillery munitions with varying accuracy (M982 Excalibur, M1156 Precision Guided Kit, and M795 dumb bomb) in two urban battlefield scenarios. Mission success corresponds to maximizing effects on enemies with minimal fratricides and collateral damage. Pythagoras, an agent-based simulation, together with efficient design of experiments (DOE), is used to study the effects and interactions of controllable factors (system capabilities) and uncontrollable factors (environment and terrain) on the intended measures of effectiveness. Regression metamodels from the DOE are then used to project a Pareto optimal frontier (POF) of the mixture that satisfies multi-objective functions, which includes the cost of munitions expended. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm is also employed to identify a set of POFs or near-optimal alternatives to the DOE results. Although results from both battle scenarios favor high allocation of M982 (10–15%) for operational effectiveness, the effectiveness of M1156 only proves to be significant in a smaller terrain. A trade-off analysis between operational and cost effectiveness also shows that a substantial amount of M795 (>60%) is needed in the mixes.
Type
Thesis
Description
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/10945/60370
Series/Report No
NPS Outstanding Theses and Dissertations
Department
Operations Research (OR)
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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