A PROBABILITY RISK ASSESSMENT TO SUPPORT A DEFENDABLE AND QUANTITATIVE SAFETY ASSESSMENT OF THE ASSAULT AMPHIBIOUS VEHICLE
Dean, Joseph A.
O'Halloran, Bryan M.
Van Bossuyt, Douglas
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There is a significant delta between the acknowledged probability of potential mishaps under the current safety assessment approach derived from Military Standard (MIL-STD) 882E, Department of Defense Standard Practice of System Safety, and what is observed from actualized mishaps reported for the assault amphibious vehicle (AAV). All of the previously investigated AAV mishaps were the result of a chain of events that could not be traced back to a single initiating mechanism, which is the approach MIL-STD-882E uses. This thesis sets out to determine the core elements of a risk-based safety assessment method that is most suitable for the AAV. By decomposing actual mishap reports, we identified common failure modes that were not adequately assessed under the current process. We then applied a probabilistic risk assessment approach and a supporting human reliability assessment to the mishap reports. This method, and the subsequent probabilistic risk assessment of these mishaps, suggests a greater probability of the unwanted event of an AAV sinking than previously acknowledged. The framework outlined in this paper has the ability to provide a more accurate and quantifiable risk assessment.
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