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        Modeling and Methodology for Incorporating Existing Technologies to Produce Higher Probabilities of Detecting Suicide Bombers

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        Author
        Fox, William P.
        Binstock, John
        Minutas, Mike
        Date
        2013
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        Abstract
        Among the many weapons currently used by terrorist organizations against public welfare and coalition forces, human-born Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) present a significant threat. Commonly referred to as suicide bombers, these individuals enter crowded public areas in order to detonate their IED, inflicting lethal damage to the surrounding individuals. Constructed of non-standard parts and hidden under layers of clothing, these human-born IEDs go undetected until detonated. Currently, there are no detection systems that can identify suicide bombers at adequate standoff distances. The authors developed models and a methodology that examine current technologies to increase the probability of identifying a suicide bomber at a checkpoint or marketplace with an adequate standoff distance. The proposed methodology employs sensor technology incorporating unique detection threshold values. The authors analyze our proposed methodology utilizing a simulation model that provides both the probability of detecting a bomber and the probability of a false detection. These simulations will allow us to determine the threshold values for each sensor that result in the best probability of detection of a suicide bomber and allows for a small probability of false detections. Using experimentally “good” threshold values, the authors were able to drastically increase the probability of detection with a combination of radar and thermal imagery. In this paper, the main sensor is the hand-held radar
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        The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/joris.2013070101
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        http://hdl.handle.net/10945/60717
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          Developing an operational and tactical methodology for Incorporating existing technologies to produce the highest Probability of detecting an individual wearing an IED 

          Minukas, Michael (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2010-06);
          Among the many weapons currently used by terrorist organizations against public welfare and coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, human-born Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) present a significant threat. Commonly ...
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          Operational effectiveness of suicide-bomber-detector schemes: A best-case analysis 

          Kaplan, Edward H.; Kress, Moshe (The National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 2005-07-19);
          Standoff explosives-detection technologies allow, in principle, for the detection of pedestrian suicide bombers, although such sensors are not yet sufficiently affordable and reliable to justify widespread deployment. ...
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          Operational Effectiveness of Suicide Bomber Detector Schemes: A Best-Case Analysis 

          Kress, Moshe; Kaplan, Edward H. (2005);
          Standoff explosives-detection technologies allow, in principle, for the detectioin of pedestrian suicide bombers, although such sensors are not yet sufficiently affordable and reliable to justify wide-spead development. ...
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