An Analysis of alternate accession sources for Naval Officers

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the effect of commissioning source on the retention and promotion outcomes of Naval officers to the O-4 promotion point. In particular, this thesis analyzes differences in the joint probabilities of retention and promotion for Officers from each commissioning program. This study identifies improved measures of Navy officer performance and the relative cost-effectiveness of each commissioning program. A database of career milestones and productivity indicators for Navy officers from year groups 1983-1990 has been created from Navy Officer Data Card information and annual promotion board results through the career milestone point O-4. multivariate logit models of retention and promotion are specified to estimate the independent effect of accession source on URL and Restricted Line officer retention and promotion outcomes. The logit models control for other determinants of retention and promotion such as undergraduate experience and capital investment. Using an assumed steady-state flow of officers, differences in promotion and retention outcomes at various grades are used to estimate the number of accessions associated with producing a single O-4 from each commissioning program. Total lifecycle costs required to retain and promote these officers to the O-4 point are calculated and used as the basis for the cost-effectiveness analysis. The cost-effectiveness outcomes depend on whether marginal or average costs are used. However, the results suggest that for URL officers USNA is generally the most cost-effective commissioning program, but the ROTC-Contact program may be underutilized. Additionally, the results do not support the belief that having a technical degree is critical to success in the Navy.