Fratricide in rebel movements: A network analysis of Syrian militant infighting
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Authors
Gade, Emily Kalah
Hafez, Mohammed M.
Gabbay, Michael
Subjects
civil war
fragmentation
ideology
infighting
social network analysis
Syria
fragmentation
ideology
infighting
social network analysis
Syria
Advisors
Date of Issue
2019-01-21
Date
21 January 2019
Publisher
Taylor & Francis Online
Language
Abstract
Violent conflict among rebels is a common feature of civil wars and insurgencies. Yet, not all rebel groups are equally prone to such infighting. While previous research has focused on the systemic causes of violent conflict within rebel movements, this article explores the factors that affect the risk of conflict between pairs of rebel groups. We generate hypotheses concerning how differences in power, ideology, and state sponsors between rebel groups impact their propensity to clash and test them using data from the Syrian civil war. The data, drawn from hundreds of infighting claims made by rebel groups on social media, are used to construct a network of conflictual ties among 30 rebel groups. The relationship between the observed network structure and the independent variables is evaluated using network analysis metrics and methods including assortativity, community structure, simulation, and latent space modeling. We find strong evidence that ideologically distant groups have a higher propensity for infighting than ideologically proximate ones. We also find support for power asymmetry, meaning that pairs of groups of disparate size are at greater risk of infighting than pairs of equal strength. No support was found for the proposition that sharing state sponsors mitigates rebels’ propensity for infighting. Our results provide an important corrective to prevailing theory, which discounts the role of ideology in militant factional dynamics within fragmented conflicts.
Type
Article
Description
The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343318806940
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Office of Naval Research
Funder
Grants N00014-15-1-2549 and N00014-16-1-2919
Format
15 p.
Citation
Emily Kalah Gade, Mohammed M. Hafez, Michael Gabbay. "Fratricide in rebel movements: A network analysis of Syrian militant infighting." Journal of Peace Research 1–15, January 2019.
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.