A cost estimation model for Commander Naval Air Forces Pacific's TACAIR F/A-18S Aviation Depot Level repair costs

Abstract

The goal of this thesis is to develop a model that Commander Naval Air Forces Pacific (CNAP) can use to estimate future TACAIR F/A-18 Aviation Depot Level Repair (AVDLR) costs. The thesis is divided into three sections. The first section discusses the methodology used to create a cost estimation model. The second and third sections provide the results of the modelαs outcomes and compares and analyzes those results to the actual results. The modelαs estimate was 19% below Fiscal Year 2001αs actual costs. This shortfall was caused by a 27% increase in Navy C modelαs AVDLR costs, which is more than twice their average annual cost increase. Since Navy C models represent over 60% of CNAPαs total TACAIR F/A-18 AVDLR costs, this unexpected increase in costs is the major contributor to the modelαs 19% difference from its estimate. In order to correct this difference in the future it is recommended that the model shift from estimating yearly costs to estimating quarterly costs to become a more accurate cost-estimating model.