VENEZUELA: ILLUMINATING A VULNERABLE STATE
Lally, Warren R.
Owen, Jeffrey S.
Everton, Sean F.
Cunningham, Daniel T.
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Academics, journalists, and researchers have conducted extensive qualitative research on the causality of the socialist-leftist movement in Venezuela; however, little quantitative research has been conducted on how and why opposition reform efforts have been largely ineffective. By using exploratory methods in the fields of social network analysis, social movement theory, and statistical analysis, this work develops an alternative quantitative model and applies it to traditional qualitative methods of analysis in these fields. Using temporal social network analysis, this thesis illuminates changes in the relationships of political parties, alliances, and ideology during the Chávez-Maduro era. Additionally, using temporal protest data and key events, it analyses the ebb and flow of social movements in relation to political opportunity. Finally, it analyzes the effects of the country’s destabilization factors and opposition’s protests on voting patterns at the municipal level to determine if social movements in Venezuela are affecting opposition reform efforts. This thesis contributes to the ongoing research on the destabilization in the region and supports the formulation of a strategy in the SOCSOUTH Area of Responsibility.
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