INTRASTATE CONFLICT RECURRENCE: LESSONS FOR COLOMBIA
Orozco Jimenez, Luis Enrique
Freeman, Michael E.
Darnton, Christopher N.
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What are the conditions and factors affecting intrastate conflict recurrence? This thesis tests the effect of the type of conflict outcome, the use of peacekeeping forces, and the presence of lootable resources on the recurrence of intrastate conflict. Using the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) datasets, this thesis performs a linear regression analysis for internal conflicts from 1946 to 2014. Results confirm that the risk of conflict recurrence reduces over time. Peace agreements show a lower likelihood of conflict recurrence than military victories. The thesis finds ambiguous results for lootable and non-lootable resources. Lootable diamonds, opium/poppy, and petroleum correlate with more conflict recurrence, whereas non-lootable diamonds correlates with less recurrence. Coca, cannabis, and opium/poppy production yielded ambiguous results. The presence of peacekeeping forces does not demonstrate a statistically significant effect on conflict recurrence. Analyzing the conflict in Colombia, this work finds that illicit drugs and onshore oil production have led to conflict recurrence. The study also shows that peace agreements have helped Colombia avoid conflict recurrence. Overall, the study shows some dynamics of conflict recurrence and provides new venues for future research.
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